Seattle Regionals statistical recap

Another weekend, another Regional. We actually did a mostly solid job predicting this one, in a largely undefined format: most of our predictions were spot-on or very close, but there were two jarring exceptions, proving that no model is ever perfect - but suggesting a couple of changes we can make to even better predict the next event. 

I, for one, welcome our new trash overlords.

PokeStats's Top 10 predicted decks for Seattle: 

1. Garbodor/Big Basics
2. Greninja BREAK
3. Garbodor/Espeon-GX
4. Gyarados
5. Alolan Ninetales-GX
6. Garbodor/Trevenant
7. DeciPlume
8. M Rayquaza/Metal
9. WaterBox
10. DeciPlume/Alolan Ninetales-GX

The actual Top 10 decks, in terms of Day 2 Meta Share:

1. Garbodor/Big Basics ✓
2. Garbodor/Espeon-GX +1
3. Vespiquen ✗
4. DeciPlume +3
5. WaterBox +4

...and a four-way tie for 6-9: Alolan Ninetales-GX (-1), DeciPlume/Alolan Ninetales-GX (+4), Garbodor/Trevenant (✓), and M Rayquaza/Metal (+2). There wasn't even a 10th archetype in Top 32. 

We were dead-on in our prediction of Garbodor/Big Basics as by far the biggest deck in Seattle. We also got Garbodor/Trevenant right at #6, and Garbodor/Espeon-GX was only a spot off (#2; predicted at #3). 

Other sound predictions: Alolan Ninetales-GX being a middle-of-the pack contender at #6 (predicted #5), and M Rayquaza/Metal also in there in the tie for #6 (predicted #8). 

We also predicted the resurgence of WaterBox, although it actually performed better than expected, as Israel Sosa piloted it all the way to a Top 8 finish. 

As for DeciPlume, our model was a bit harsher on it than reality, although the deck still did not perform as well as I think many players were expecting, judging by some comments on Twitter and Facebook. We were correct in predicting both the original variant and the new Alolan Ninetales variant to be part of Top 32, with the original exceeding the Ninetales variant in Meta Share. 

Of course, with every discussion of what we got right, I've got to talk about what we got wrong, too. Unfortunately, the model we used predicted two decks to be among the top 5 contenders in Seattle, but in reality, both of these decks failed to even make Top 32. Observers of the Power Rankings will note that these are both Water-type decks using one-Prize attackers: Greninja BREAK and Gyarados. We predicted them at the 2nd-most-successful and 4th-most-successful decks, respectively, which could not have been farther from the truth.

Greninja is a bit easier to explain. The deck is still considered inconsistent - most of what it gained from Guardians Rising (Choice Band, Field Blower) make the deck more powerful, not more consistent. Although Greninja was in fact the second-most-successful deck at League Cups the week prior to Seattle, it remains just that - a "League Cup deck," which has the potential to perform very well at small events but lacks the consistency to do well at large events, at least for now. We should have caught onto this and reprogrammed the model accordingly.

The hot tech of the weekend?

Gyarados, on the other hand, is an inherently powerful deck that has consistency but is extremely susceptible to techs designed to counter it. We saw Sammy Sosa appear on stream in the first round of the tournament, playing this deck, and it looked like he was in a good position for the rest of the day. What we didn't know, however, was the amount of people who would be teching Gyarados counter cards, primarily Spinda PRC and Azelf XY142. Gyarados was actually considered one of the top decks going into this Regional, and evidently it was feared enough that people made specific efforts to counter it. The deck simply can't deal with the sudden board wipe that Spinda or Azelf provides, even with new options like Rescue Stretcher. We'll be keeping an eye on League Cup results (and checking in with the experts) to see if Gyarados might stand a chance at Madison and Birmingham next weekend, or if it's mostly gone for good.

It's also worth noting that we missed out on predicting Vespiquen's lone Day 2 finish - kudos to Jeffrey Cheng for correctly predicting the low amount of DeciPlume and piloting the deck all the way to second place. We had the Queen Bee ranked T-17 entering Seattle. :(

So what should we be looking for at the next set of Regionals? Garbodor is still probably going to be big, but what really needs to be carefully considered is decks that have good Garbodor matchups. Vespiquen is a clear example, considering Jeffrey Cheng's second-place finish at Seattle; Israel Sosa also claimed that his WaterBox deck was 50-50 or slightly favorable against Garbodor. The Charizard Lounge's Andrew Wamboldt has recently posted about a couple of decks he feels have strong Garbodor matchups, namely Solgaleo-GX/Rayquaza and Umbreon-GX/Zoroark BREAK, so go read up on those if you're having trouble defeating the trash can man.

We'll look to have the Power Rankings updated by Wednesday to allow readers a few days to test our top predictions for Madison and Birmingham.

If you'd like to see more interesting stats and factoids regarding Seattle Regionals and our new garbage overlords, take a look around the site, and then be sure to follow us on Twitter @PokeStats_TCG. It seems like PokeStats is really starting to become a bigger part of the competitive community in terms of providing live coverage and statistical analysis, and I'm excited to see where this goes!

A Statistical Brazil Report + Improving the Power Rankings Model

Brazil Intercontinentals occurred this past weekend, and I made my predictions shortly before then, testing out a new model that better incorporated Regional-vs.-League Cup data into one formula. Here were my model's predictions for the top 10 decks for Brazil:

1. DeciPlume
2. Turbo Darkrai-EX
3. Volcanion
4. M Mewtwo
5. Quad Lapras
6. Darkrai-EX/Dragons
7. Yveltal-EX
8. M Rayquaza/Espeon-GX
9. Gyarados
10. Tauros-GX Disruption variants

And here were the actual Top 10: 

1. DeciPlume
2. M Rayquaza/Fire 
3. Volcanion
4. Rainbow DeciPlume
5. Turbo Darkrai-EX
6. M Gardevoir STS
7. M Mewtwo 
8. Gyarados
9. Vespiquen/Raichu
10. Yveltal-EX

So a couple of my predictions - DeciPlume and Volcanion - were dead on. I'm quite pleased with how the model predicted DeciPlume to finish first in CP - all the data from Utah and from April's League Cups, combined with my formulas, indicated it would finish first, although many top players wrote the deck off somewhat. My prediction for Gyarados was quite close, and although I missed the mark a bit with Turbo Dark and Yveltal, those weren't too bad either. 

It wasn't all perfect, though, so like any good statistician, I need to analyze what went wrong and figure out how to improve my model. I'll discuss each major mistake in detail as follows: 

1. Lapras: Should've Used the Harsher Model?
2. Rainbow DeciPlume: Kettler Was Right!
3. Dark Dragons and M Gardevoir: The Importance of the Right Meta Call
4. Fire Ray: Ask the Experts

1. Quad Lapras

Five of the top players in the world - Alex Hill, Michael Pramawat, Sam Chen, Jimmy Pendarvis, and Joe Bernard - elected to play Quad Lapras at Brazil, a choice which unfortunately proved fatal for each of their tournament runs. I had studied Lapras quite a lot prior to Brazil, since it showed a lot of popularity in League Cups but was largely unproven at Regionals. Interestingly, I developed a model that was very harsh on Lapras, placing it outside of the Top 10 in the Power Rankings, but I eschewed this model in favor of another which I felt was more accurate for the rest of the meta. This discarded model actually proved to be a bit more accurate than the one I actually used: it kept DeciPlume and Volcanion at the top but was kinder to M Gardevoir and M Rayquaza, decks which in actuality performed pretty well at the event, as well as harsher to Lapras, Tauros, and Dark Dragons. 

A failed endeavor? Or does Lapras still
have what it takes?

So now what's the consensus on Lapras? I asked Jimmy Pendarvis on Twitter (@Ginge_TCG) his thoughts on the deck with regard to his tournament run. He said he doesn't regret playing the deck - in fact, it "felt amazing" against his competition, but he "was unlucky on [coin] flips," going "0/7 on Crushing Hammer against Rainbow Road."

I then talked with Alex Hill (@kazambolt) about his performance. He, too, still praised Lapras. I asked him about the deck's matchups - this was what likely led me astray when I published my Power Rankings - specifically about Volcanion and DeciPlume, matchups about which the competitive community largely seems to disagree. I'd thought (somewhat naively) that both were unfavorable for Lapras: DeciPlume because of Weakness, and Volcanion because of its aggressive nature compared to Lapras's slow style. However, Hill cleared up my perspective, noting that DeciPlume is "60/40 or 65/35 in Lapras [sic] favor," via the use of Rough Seas, Energy-denial Supporters, and Wobbuffet. Volcanion is "one of the few times you plan on going aggro," charging up two Lapras to blow through Volcanions. (The matchup is only favorable if the Lapras player runs Max Elixir, however.)

Where am I after conducting these interviews? Honestly, Lapras is still kind of an enigma. TLDR: One of the models I nearly used was very accurate in predicting Lapras's performance in Brazil - BUT, this model was based on my apparently faulty assumption that the deck generally loses to Volcanion and DeciPlume. I'm going to pay careful attention to this deck when I construct my Roanoke predictions, and I'll being doing several simulations with different models to make the most accurate estimate I can.


2. Rainbow DeciPlume
Shoutout to the almighty John Kettler for predicting this one, because I (and most of the top players) got it completely wrong. I actually had this deck ranked very highly (#4, I think) entering the third weekend of April League Cups - but after a no-show performance there, it dropped something crazy like 20 spots. And then, seemingly out of nowhere, it got first place in Brazil.

As far as I know, only Kettler predicted something like this: on PokeBeach, he wrote that the play for Brazil was DeciPlume with two Jolteon-EX (the winner played a Jolteon-EX and a Regice AOR). I really couldn't tell you why the Rainbow version was so successful at the event. That's a question for the pros. What I do know is that I need to carefully consider every variant of a deck and analyze their matchups against the predicted metagame. I ran into a very similar problem with M Rayquaza, which I'll talk about a bit later...


3. Dark Dragons and M Gardevoir STS

A Renegade warrior...

I faced a similar scenario with these two decks. I predicted Dark/Dragons to perform pretty well in Brazil, while I had Gardevoir outside the top 10. In reality, the exact opposite was true. Unlike with Lapras and Rainbow DeciPlume, I believe I can say exactly why this was.

Gardevoir is a very consistent deck with a lot of 50-50 (ish) matchups. It's a deck you play in a "blind field" - a large tournament with a wide-open meta. Rather than taking a risk on a deck designed to counter the meta, and sacrificing consistency, you can choose to go in with a deck that is practically guaranteed to get you some wins, albeit in close games. I don't think Gardevoir matches up well against DeciPlume, but against everything else, it stands a solid chance. I'm planning to research this concept of "blind field" decks further.

Dark Dragons, by contrast, is not a "blind field" deck. It's a very specific meta call a player makes when expecting a large amount of Special Energy decks - Vespiquen, for example, or M Mewtwo. The power of Chaos Wheel is fantastic against these kinds of decks, but Dark Dragons is not as consistent as its counterpart Turbo Dark. Turbo Dark was a better choice for Brazil because there was no indication going into the event that Special Energy decks would be popular; therefore, playing Dark Dragons would have been a sizable risk.

4. M Rayquaza
Going into Brazil, I had the Espeon-GX variant of M Rayquaza ranked highest (#8). The version that actually ended up doing well at the event was the Fire variant, which I had ranked #14. (Jolteon-EX was at 15; Metal was tied for 21.) This is interesting to me. Virtually all the League Cup data I'd gathered in the week prior to Brazil showed the Psychic variant performing well. I'd assume that this variant is simply more suited to small tournament play, and a different type of Ray was needed to succeed in a larger tournament. This is another thing I'd need to account for in my models.

While we're on the subject of Rayquaza, I want to point out a couple of interesting variants. One of the Brazil decks played Fire Energy but no Volcanion-EX - the Energy were solely to take advantage of Scorched Earth in the Volcanion matchup. Another played Gumshoos-GX, a style which saw a small amount of League Cup success and which I actually predicted would be a good play for Brazil. 

Puerto Rico Special Event Top 8

Recently a "Special Event" was held in Puerto Rico; several US players made the trip to earn some more CP. Here was the final standings after Top 8:

1. Tristan Macek, Yveltal-EX/Garbodor
2. Hector Hoyos, Vespiquen
3. Peter Kica, M Rayquaza/Fire
4. Rahul Reddy, Vespiquen
5. Michael Canaves, Yveltal-EX/Garbodor
6. Emmanuel Carlo Alvarez, M Mewtwo
7. Eric Gansman, Quad Lapras
8. Jose Sola, DeciPlume

Vespiquen returns!

San Jose Regionals now over!

STREAMED MATCHES: 

DAY 1:

R1 - DRAW: M. Trujillo (0-0-0, M Manectric/Garbodor) / D. Kennett (0-0-0, Greninja) 

R2 - J. Jallen (1-0-0, Zygarde-EX/Carbink BREAK) def. I. Sosa (1-0-0, Dark/Maxie's) 

R3 - DRAW: S. Sosa (2-0-0, Greninja) / I. Williams (2-0-0, Yveltal/Maxie's) 

R4 - D. Selin (3-0-0, Turbo Darkrai-EX) def. S. Hough (3-0-0, Darkrai-EX/Dragons) 

R5 - K. Amini (3-0-1, Yveltal/Maxie's) def. A. Zavala (3-0-1, Sableye/Garbodor)

R6 - E. Wallig (5-0-0, Trevenant) def. E. Lede (5-0-0, Seismitoad-EX/Giratina-EX)

R7 - DRAW: A. Bobenrieth (5-1-0, Yveltal/Maxie's) / J. Pham (Yveltal/Maxie's)

R8 - S. Radu (5-1-1, Night March) def. A. Elisalde (5-1-1, M Manectric/Jolteon-EX/Seismitoad-EX)

R9 - not streamed

DAY 2

TOP 32

R10 - R. Reyes (7-1-1, Rainbow Road) def. J. Fernandez (7-0-2, Keldeo-EX/Blastoise)

R11 - I. Williams (7-1-2, Yveltal/Maxie's) def. I. Sosa (7-1-2, Dark/Maxie's)

R12 - DRAW: F. Sermeno (7-2-3, Greninja) / Z. Miller (7-2-3, M Manectric)

R13 - S. Chen (8-2-2, Zygarde-EX/Carbink BREAK) def. C. Cosio (8-2-2, Trevenant)

R14 - D. Selin (9-3-1, Turbo Darkrai-EX) def. D. Kennett (8-2-3, Greninja)

TOP 8

Quarterfinal - M. Garcia (3-seed, Dark/Maxie's) def. I. Sosa (6-seed, Dark/Maxie's)

Semifinal - K. Britton (8-seed, Greninja) def. S. Chen (4-seed, Zygarde-EX/Carbink BREAK)

Final - M. Garcia (3-seed, Dark/Maxie's) def. K. Britton (8-seed, Greninja)


Congratulations to the San Jose Regional champion, Mark Garcia!

Stats will be analyzed and updated soon. 

London Intercontinentals now over!

The stream from London has ended and there's a lot to analyze. My prediction seems to have been pretty accurate for the two biggest decks (Yveltals/Garb and Volcanion); beyond that, we'll have to wait and see as more results come in. Greninja was on stream plenty, and I know Europe loves that archetype, so I think it did pretty well too. 

Five of the Top 8 decks were Yveltal/Garb variants, and only one was eliminated in the quarterfinals, leading to an all-Yveltal Top 4. When it was all over, Michael Pramawat's version of the deck took home the trophy - and 500 Championship Points. 

As more results from the championship are revealed in the next day or two, I'll update all the statistics and rankings here on PokeStats and refine my prediction formula for the next tournament - the ARG Invitational in Orlando, Dec 17-18. 

In the meantime, can anyone figure out how to beat Yveltal/Garb?