BLW-CEC League Cup Results Entering Dallas Regionals

✎ Tate Whitesell (@twhitesell42) / Luke Morsa (@Celios_Network) / Kiernan Wagner (@KiernanWagner)

Click to view rankings + statistics Google doc 
(You can always view the current week's rankings and statistics at the Weekly Cup Data tab, and can check back on previous weeks with the archive.)

This data sample covers every BLW-CEC League Cup in our database so far. This should be considered the definitive statistical content source for preparing for this weekend's Dallas Regional Championships.

Our metagame analysts Luke Morsa and Kiernan Wagner have compiled some notes on the top-ranked decks in the sample.

Turbo Dark
Dark amassed a whopping 865 CP at these Cups, putting it almost 300 points ahead of the second-ranked deck. This should come as no surprise, given the multitude of factors surrounding this deck's success; its low skill ceiling and inexpensiveness to build, combined with its immaculate matchup spread--concerning the more popular decks--make for a serious contender. I think the deck's only truly bad matchups are Fighting decks, Shock Lock, and a good Mewtwo & Mew-GX player--and considering the under-representation of the former two, along with the difficulty of playing MewMew, Turbo Dark is likely the “safest” pick for Dallas. -Kiernan

Mewtwo & Mew-GX 
KiernyBox” showed up in high numbers at the start of many of the cup marathons, only to falter when Turbo Dark established dominance. But a little retooling quickly shifted the Turbo Dark matchup back to favorable, at least for a skilled MewMew player. The deck remains extremely under-respected, despite taking a slightly favored Turbo Dark matchup, overwhelmingly positive matchups against Zoroark-GX/Garbodor and Ultra Necrozma variants, while also being one of the few decks to naturally take a favorable matchup versus both Rowlet & Alolan Exeggutor-GX and Shock Lock, without including specific techs. Much of the CP that MewMew earned (586 in total) was attributed to a relatively small number of players. The deck is very difficult to play properly, and the lack of respect for it often comes from players under-utilizing the plethora of options it offers, but those who played it and took time to learn it were rewarded fruitfully. If you’re willing to put the time in to learn this complicated beast, I think it currently sits as one of the best possible plays for Dallas. -Kiernan

Zoroark-GX/Garbodor
ZoroGarb is still alive and kicking, garnering a number 3 spot in these CP rankings. It is still a strong option because of comfort, consistency, and tech options. Players may stick with ZoroGarb due to the consistency of Zoroark-GX and the power of shutting your opponents’ Abilities down with Garbotoxin. ZoroGarb is notorious for not having many autowin or autoloss matchups; rather, it will usually be able to adapt to the meta and have many close matchups that come down to tech cards and player skill. This is appealing to players of higher skill who are comfortable with the deck. ZoroGarb will undoubtedly have a presence at Dallas, and if it follows the Cup data trend, it should be fairly successful. -Luke

Gardevoir & Sylveon-GX
Gardeon saw some play in Expanded in the BLW-UNB format, which was played at Cups during the Origins SPE week in the summer of 2019. It then became cemented as a top-tier Expanded archetype when Drew Cate took it to Top 4 at Richmond Regionals. and the deck earned two more Top 8 placements at the following Portland Regionals. Since then, the deck has gained Mega Lopunny & Jigglypuff-GX, which is a huge asset for dealing with aggressive GX decks like Turbo Dark and Pikachu & Zekrom-GX. Gardeon is typically paired with Aromatisse and healing cards to constantly move Energy around and heal, which allows the deck to tank attacks over and over again. Magical Miracle GX is one of the easiest ways to completely strip an opponent's hand, which is another strong attribute of this archetype. Gardeon is a unique deck in Expanded and it has a strong matchup versus any single-Prize-attacker deck that struggles to one-shot Gardeon. -Luke

Ultra Necrozma/Garbodor
Ultra Necrozma has been one of the most hyped cards for the new format, and it does have some solid Cup performances to back up that hype. The biggest question when it comes to this deck has been: is Garbodor the correct partner for Ultra Necrozma? Garbotoxin is obviously a very powerful Ability, but playing a build of the deck with Octillery and Alolan Muk allows the Ultra Necrozma player to have on-board draw support to increase consistency and avoid bricking off N. We expect this archetype to be popular in Dallas; its success will likely depend on whether players develop an optimized list. -Luke

Lucario-GX
Lucario was a deck brought back seemingly from the dead by our team, Gentlemen & Scholars, following Turbo Dark’s re-establishment as the BDIF. Despite being built as a hard counter to Turbo Dark, the deck also takes favorable matchups to many other top-tier decks, including Zoroark-GX/Garbodor, Gardevoir & Sylveon-GX, Shock Lock, Rowlet & Alolan Exeggutor-GX, and Night March, while taking approximately a 50-50 against Ultra Necrozma. Almost every matchup you will see except for Mewtwo & Mew-GX is workable, and while the deck is somewhat of a gutsy call if you expect MewMew to be highly played, the neutral-to-favorable matchups it enjoys otherwise make it a potential bombshell and title contender in the hands of a decent player. -Kiernan

Shock Lock
Shock Lock is a constant threat at any Expanded event, though in limited numbers due to the restrictive nature of any deck that requires four Tropical Beach. Few decks are capable of beating Shock Lock without hard-teching for it, and the worth of teching for a deck that will be represented by only a small handful of players is usually not worth it for most competitors. This archetype primarily fears Zoroark-GX/Garbodor, although Lucario-GX and Mewtwo & Mew-GX can also be sketchy matchups, and even some Turbo Dark lists can beat it via a combination of Weavile-GX, Mega Sableye & Tyranitar-GX, and possibly an Escape Rope. I believe if you want to win Dallas Regionals, you should have some kind of game plan for Shock Lock. -Kiernan

Rowlet & Alolan Exeggutor-GX
EggRow sits in a funny place in the format. On its own, it isn’t really a great deck. Its slow setup, clunkiness, and low damage output make the deck much worse on paper than most of the others in the format, it becomes a very serious threat--this is what happened when JW Kriewall took it to first place at Richmond Regionals. The deck's main selling points are Item lock, Faba, and Vileplume BUS for shutting down Basic decks that do not play a counter. Currently, almost all Turbo Dark lists are playing Weavile-GX, so Turbo Dark should still be favored against EggRow, and Mewtwo & Mew-GX, Zoroark-GX/Garbodor, Ultra Necrozma/Garbodor, Lucario-GX, and Gardevoir & Sylveon-GX all have ways to beat it as well, often with ease. The deck feels like a very poor play for Dallas just given its matchup spread, but the church of EggRow tends to have devout followers, so the deck deserves some amount of respect going into the weekend. -Kiernan

Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
Pikachu & Zekrom-GX is a very solid deck but was almost forgotten about for this format. It did not see much play or success in this Cup sample, but we believe it is probably the most under-the-radar play for Dallas. -Luke

Night March
Night March is another deck that has fallen off somewhat due to new archetypes or improvements to old archetypes, but it still had some decent Cup performances, including a Top 4 finish under Michael Pramawat. While it can trade favorably against most GX-based decks, the archetype is susceptible to Item lock, Special Energy lock, and even Ability lock on turn one or after a late-game N. -Luke

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