Players Cup III: Top 256 -- Players and Decks Advancing to Week 2

Tate Whitesell (@twhitesell42) | Jeremy Lim (@LiberoTCG)

The first portion of the Players Cup III Top 256 bracket was held this weekend, whittling down the field to the Top 16 players in each of the North America, Latin America, Europe, and Oceania divisions. PokéStats has collected information on the players and decks advancing to the next weekend of competition.  

Caio Paoli contributed to this report. 

North America

Winners:

• Christian Chase, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
• Will Crawford, Lucario & Melmetal-GX
• Mike Fouchet, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
• Andres Gabaldon, Eternatus VMAX with Crushing Hammer
• Azul Garcia Griego, Welder Toolbox
• Teja Gummadi, Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GX/Zacian V
• Kim Hyun-Soo, Centiskorch VMAX
• Kevin Krueger, Decidueye

Losers:

• Thomas Brophy, Centiskorch VMAX
• Evan Campbell, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
• Andrew Hedrick, Welder Toolbox
• Dan Hugar, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
• Joan Morsa, Centiskorch VMAX
• Blake Pennington, Lucario & Melmetal-GX/Zacian V
• Jeremy Reisig, Inteleon VMAX/Frosmoth
• Andy Zhang, Centiskorch VMAX

Latin America

Winners:

• Paulo Roberto Beraldo Jr., Coalossal VMAX
• Andrew Ariel Dias, Eternatus VMAX
• Miguel Ángel Linares Lamas, Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GX/Zacian V
• Matías Martini, Eternatus VMAX
• Lucas Matheus, Lucario & Melmetal-GX/Zacian V
• Joaquin Reyes, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
• Giovanni Peragallo Shand, Centiskorch VMAX
• Alan Winther, Lucario & Melmetal-GX/Zacian V

Losers:

• Saidd Argenis Lopez Alcala, Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GX/Zacian V
• Miguel Angel Lopez Bernal, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
• Alfonso Cabello, Eternatus VMAX/Weavile-GX/Umbreon & Darkrai-GX
• Marcos Cardoso, Eternatus VMAX/Galarian Slowbro V/Toxicroak
• Cesar Lopes Pereira, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
• Christian Renato, Eternatus VMAX
• Mauricio Reyes, Centiskorch VMAX
• Eric Villagra, Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GX/Zacian V

Europe

Winners:

• Luca Clavadetscher, Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GX/Zacian V
• Davide Innocente, Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GX/Zacian V
• Riccardo Maganza, Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GX/Zacian V
• Daniele Matrigale, Lucario & Melmetal-GX/Zacian V
• Federico Racioppi, Eternatus VMAX/Galarian Weezing
• Robin Schulz, Cramorant VMAX/Porygon-Z
• Sam Taylor, Lucario & Melmetal-GX/Zacian V
• Alexander Weber, Welder Toolbox

Losers:

• Guillermo Calle, Eternatus VMAX/Weavile-GX/Umbreon & Darkrai-GX
• Olavi Kiuru, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
• Mathias Nilssen, Coalossal VMAX
• Simone Ponginibbio, Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GX/Zacian V
• Tord Reklev, Excadrill Control
• Matteo Rizza, Eternatus VMAX/Weavile-GX/Umbreon & Darkrai-GX
• Tobias Smutkowski, Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GX/Zacian V
• Kevin Zucchi, Centiskorch VMAX

Oceania

Winners:

• David Daritan, Eternatus VMAX/Galarian Weezing
• Yasuyuki Handa, Zacian V
• Mitch Knuckey, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
• Jeremy Lim, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
• Max McInnis, Welder Toolbox
• Jordan Palmer, Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GX/Zacian V
• Jack Underwood, Welder Toolbox
• Miguel Villar, Eternatus VMAX/Galarian Weezing

Losers:

• Damian Azzato, Lucario & Melmetal-GX/Zacian V
• James Farrugia, Welder Toolbox
• Christian Hasbani, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
• Chris Jones, Lucario & Melmetal-GX/Zacian V
• Benjamin Kouzas, Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GX/Zacian V
• Jack Millar, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
• Ifran Nabi, Charizard VIV
• David Patane, Welder Toolbox

Overall metagame

Eternatus VMAX - 13

Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GX/Zacian V - 11

Pikachu & Zekrom-GX - 10

Lucario & Melmetal-GX - 8

Centiskorch VMAX - 7

Welder Toolbox - 7

Coalossal VMAX - 2

Charizard VIV - 1

Cramorant VMAX/Porygon-Z - 1

Decidueye - 1

Excadrill Control - 1

Inteleon VMAX/Frosmoth - 1

Zacian V - 1

2019 Madison Regionals Recap and Matchup Data

June 3, 2019 // Tate Whitesell and Rukan Shao

"ReshiZard" had more than double the
Day 2 appearances of its next closest
competitor.

This past weekend, the final Regional Championship in North America for the 2018-19 season took place in Madison, Wisconsin (see our event data page). Now that the PokéStats team has collected all of the Day 2 decks (with help from ARG Europe's Jack Old--much appreciated!), we can bring you the complete Day 2 metagame breakdown and some preliminary matchup data. 

Day 2 deck breakdown

23 Reshiram & Charizard-GX

11 Pikachu & Zekrom-GX

5 Blacephalon-GX/Naganadel

5 Zoroark-GX/Persian-GX/Slowking

4 Blacephalon UNB

3 Quagsire/Naganadel

3 Weezing

3 Zapdos/Ultra Beasts

2 Granbull

1 Blissey/Welder

1 Malamar/Ultra Necrozma-GX

1 Vikavolt

1 Zoroark-GX/Glaceon-GX

1 Zoroark-GX/Gyarados
1 Zoroark-GX/Lycanroc-GX

1 Zoroark-GX/Persian-GX/Silvally-GX/Lycanroc-GX


Top 8 breakdown and meta analysis
When Day 2 Swiss concluded, four different archetypes advanced to Top 8: four Reshiram & Charizard-GX, two Zoroark-GX/Persian-GX/Slowking, one Blacephalon-GX/Naganadel, and one Pikachu & Zekrom-GX. In the finals, Ian Robb's Blacephalon-GX/Naganadel defeated Azul Garcia Griego's Reshiram & Charizard-GX in a close three-game series.

We can compare this to the Top 8 from last month's Santa Clara Regionals, the first (and currently only other) NA event in SUM-TEU. That top cut had two Reshiram & Charizard-GX, two Shedinja Stall, two Zapdos, one Lucario & Melmetal-GX/Vileplume stall, and one Pikachu & Zekrom-GX.

Thus, Reshiram & Charizard-GX, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX, and Zoroark-GX/Persian-GX/Slowking apparently increased in strength from Santa Clara, and Blacephalon-GX/Naganadel proved to be able to come back into the meta and hold its own against those three archetypes. Meanwhile, stall decks and Zapdos variants decreased in strength between Santa Clara and Madison. With stall performing very well in Santa Clara, more players were prepared to counter it in Madison; notably, according to RK9 Labs data, only a single Master in Madison played the Shedinja Stall deck that had two Top 8 appearances in Santa Clara.

While Kian Amini's winning Reshiram & Charizard-GX list from Santa Clara featured a Green's Expedition engine and four Volcanion UNB, only one of the four Reshiram & Charizard-GX lists in Madison's Top 8--Cody Walinski's--used this build. The other three used a Jirachi/Dedenne-GX engine. 

Day 2 AMPS
Here are the decks sorted by average match points per series (AMPS). Remember that lots of players by definition means lots of losers. That's why Reshiram & Charizard-GX ranks so low in terms of this metric, even if it's clearly very good.

Let me give some examples. You should interpret Zoroark-GX/Persian-GX/Slowking as having an impressive performance, due to its high ranking and high player count. Meanwhile, Zapdos shouldn't seem as impressive, because while its AMPS is similar to those of Pikachu & Zekrom-GX and Reshiram & Charizard-GX, Zapdos had a much smaller player count.

AMPS | Deck | Overall Day 2 record
2.000 | Malamar/Ultra Necrozma-GX | 3-1-1
1.844 | Zoroark-GX/Persian-GX/Slowking | 19-11-2
1.786 | Blacephalon-GX/Naganadel | 15-8-5
1.544 | Pikachu & Zekrom-GX | 28-25-4
1.533 | Zapdos/Ultra Beasts | 7-6-2
1.426 | Reshiram & Charizard-GX | 51-50-21
1.400 | Zoroark-GX/Gyarados | 2-2-1
1.267 | Quagsire/Naganadel | 6-8-1
1.200 | Blissey/Welder | 2-3-0
1.200 | Zoroark-GX/Lycanroc-GX | 2-3-0
1.100 | Blacephalon UNB | 6-10-4
1.100 | Granbull | 3-5-2
0.800 | Vikavolt UNB | 1-3-1
0.733 | Weezing | 2-8-5
0.200 | Zoroark-GX/Glaceon-GX | 0-4-1


Matchup details
I wouldn't read too far into exact matchup details due to sample size, but we do have decent sample sizes for both Reshiram & Charizard-GX and Pikachu & Zekrom-GX:

R&C Favored vs P&Z (11-4-2)
R&C Favored vs Zoroark-GX/Persian-GX/Slowking (6-4-0)
R&C Neutral vs Zapdos (2-2-1)
R&C Unfavored vs Blacephalon-GX/Naganadel (3-8-1)
R&C Unfavored vs Blacephalon UNB (0-5-3)
R&C Unfavored vs Quagsire/Naganadel (2-5-0)
R&C Neutral vs Weezing (2-1-3)

P&Z Favored vs Weezing (3-0-1)
P&Z Favored vs Quagsire/Naganadel (3-0-0)
P&Z Unfavored vs Zoroark-GX/Persian-GX/Slowking (2-4-0)
P&Z Unfavored vs Blacephalon-GX/Naganadel (1-2-1)
P&Z Favored vs Blacephalon UNB (4-0-0)
P&Z Favored vs Zapdos (2-0-0)


Some conclusions

• Weezing did very poorly in Day 2. Healing cards such as Acerola and Max Potion were seen in many decks including Pikachu & Zekrom-GX, Reshiram & Charizard-GX, and Zoroark-GX variants; all of these make things difficult for Weezing. The copy of Miltank in Team DDG's Reshiram & Charizard-GX list would also have crippled Weezing. Many decks on stream over the weekend were also running one or two Field Blower, which removes Weezing's Shrine of Punishment and Spell Tag (and also helped limit the success of Shedinja Stall). 
• Zapdos wasn't that impressive in Day 2 either, falling from two Top 8 placements in Santa Clara to zero in Madison. The same healing techs that stopped Weezing also probably curbed Zapdos. 
• Reshiram & Charizard ran into a lot of counter decks. Most notably, there were three Quagsire/Naganadel players in Day 2 as well as one Zoroark-GX/Gyarados; these decks could hit Reshiram & Charizard-GX's fire attackers for Weakness. 
• In an interesting deck-building choice, Team DDG's Reshiram & Charizard-GX list did not run Choice Band; this meant it could only OHKO a Pikachu & Zekrom-GX once, by using Double Blaze GX (and this required attaching six Energy to one Pokémon). Rahul Reddy, who got 15th with Pikachu & Zekrom-GX, said he felt his deck had a favorable matchup against DDG's. 
• Although not all of the Blacephalon-GX/Naganadel decks in Day 2 performed well, it seems the deck served adequately as another counter to Reshiram & Charizard-GX, with Ian Robb taking out three Reshiram & Charizard-GX in a row in Top 8. 

SPE Results for April 13-14, 2019

This weekend saw three Special Events held around the world: in Manila, the Philippines; Lima, Peru; and Mixco, Guatemala. PokéStats has obtained the Top 8 standings for each event. You can find additional tournament information on these events' individual data pages.

Manila SPE
the Philippines

1. Luther Wong, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
2. Melvyn Lee, Zapdos
3. Colin Tang, Zapdos/Jolteon-GX
4. Athavan Akilan, Tapu Koko Spread
5. Syahmi Razak, Zapdos/Jolteon-GX/Ultra Beasts
6. Adrian Acuzar, Vikavolt/Rayquaza-GX
7. Klive Aw, Hoopa/Regigigas
8. Jit Min Lim, Golisopod-GX/Lucario-GX/Garbodor

Malaysia and Lightning-type Pokémon took down this tournament, with the top five finishers being Malaysians playing Lightning-based decks! 2018 Worlds Top 4 finisher Klive Aw took a break from his trademark Zygarde-GX decks to play some stall, while another well-known player, Jit Min Lim, played a rogue Stage 1 toolbox deck powered by Jirachi TEU and Rainbow Energy. Meanwhile, Adrian Acuzar chose to bring back Vikavolt/Rayquaza-GX--as we will see, the same deck Jose Marrero used to win an SPE on the other side of the world this weekend.


Mixco SPE
Guatemala

1. Jose Marrero, Vikavolt/Rayquaza-GX
2. Rahul Reddy, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
3. Nestor Fabrizio Lazo Orellana, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
4. Jan Andres Castillo Moreno, Zoroark-GX Control
5. Zachery Stover, Zapdos
6. Finn McKeefry, Zoroark-GX Control
7. Rodolfo Santiago Funes Muñoz, Zygarde-GX/Lucario-GX
8. Fernando Castañeda Perez, Blacephalon-GX/Naganadel

Two Americans met in the finals of this SPE, with Jose Marrero taking the win using an unexpected deck--Vikavolt/Rayquaza-GX, which was often considered the BDIF at the very beginning of this season but has rarely been played since then. The rest of Top 8 was fairly standard, with a couple of players opting for the Zoroark-GX Control deck Caleb Gedemer used to win Denver Regionals last weekend.


Lima SPE
Peru

1. Bastian Silva, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX
2. Jose Carlos Gomez, Blacephalon-GX/Naganadel
3. Bruno Paredes, Blacephalon-GX/Naganadel
4. Jorge Salas, Pikachu & Zekrom-GX/Zapdos
5. Bruno Eguizabal, Malamar/Ultra Necrozma-GX
6. Renzo Zambrano, Zapdos/Jolteon-GX
7. Carlos Jesus Melgar, Blacephalon-GX/Naganadel
8. Rodrigo Pereda, Zoroark-GX Control

Blacephalon-GX/Naganadel had the most Top 8 appearances of any deck in Lima, with three. This was also the only one of this weekend's three events to feature a Malamar deck in Top 8. 

Canada in the Rearview: How Our Experts' Predictions Held Up at Vancouver Regionals

This year, PokeStats has been creating Deck Power Rankings prior to every major event with the help of some of the game's top-rated players. 13 players helped out with our Vancouver rankings - a smaller group than usual, but expected given that not many of the top players actually attended Vancouver, which was a pretty small Regional. 

I decided to take a look back at those rankings and see just how accurate they were in predicting Vancouver's meta, so without further ado, let's get into it. 

Actual Day 2 Breakdown from Vancouver

Everyone's pretty much got the BRT-BSH format figured out, it seems. Gardevoir-GX is the clear BDIF:

Actually just fuck gardevoir. That deck is pure aids

— 👻 jvw 💀 (@jacobvanwagner) October 15, 2017

A short ways behind it is Drampa-GX/Garbodor (which a lot of players added Espeon-GX into in Vancouver), and following that are Golisopod-GX/Garbodor and Volcanion. Lower-tier decks that still saw success: Greninja BREAK and miscellaneous Golisopod-GX variants. There was one notable rogue in Top 32 in Vancouver: Alex Koch's Zoroark BREAK/Bisharp STS/Tapu Koko, which attempted to destroy Gardevoir-GX while having a decent matchup against most other decks (seems like it worked pretty well). Anyone interested in Koch's list can find it on Limitless here.

That being a rogue pet deck, our Power Rankings did not predict its 15th place finish, but the Expert Panel did pretty darn well with everything else. Let's compare the actual Day 2 Meta Shares of the 7 decks (yeah, only 7... diverse format) that reached Day 2 versus their rank in the predictions:

Koch's Zoroark/Bisharp and Aaron Tarbell's Golisopod-GX/Bisharp were both pet decks and there was no reason to expect them to appear on the pre-Regional rankings. The rest of that chart is about as accurate as you can be without being 100% correct: just switch a couple decks and you'd have the perfect picture. BRT-BSH is now an obsolete format, as this coming weekend's Cups feature the brand-new Shining Legends set. I doubt many players will remember BRT-BSH fondly, as the lack of diversity, oppressiveness of Gardevoir-GX, and the fact that the Vancouver meta was almost exactly predicted the week before, show that it is a pretty "closed" format.

I'll try to have some insight into BRT-SHL published here on PokeStats in the next few days for those of you competing in Cups this weekend, whether that insight is statistical or more subjective (I might pick the brains of my Power Panel while they're taking a break between this past Regional stretch and London Intercontinentals). We'll see if anything might be poised to tip Gardevoir off its lofty perch, and any other surprises Shining Legends might drum up. In the meantime, keep checking back for updates sitewide: new features such as Meta Progression Charts, and updates to event data from past seasons. Stay tuned, and thanks for reading and supporting PokeStats!

Notable Numbers from 2017 Hartford Regionals

Back during last season, I'd occasionally publish short recaps of events here on the blog that featured some "Notable Numbers" pertinent to the event. I'm bringing that back this season because Hartford Regionals saw some interesting statistics and other oddities rise to the forefront, and they are worth a look, whether simply entertaining or actually relevant to the future of the metagame.

751
Masters attendance for the event
This put Hartford on the board as the second-largest Regional of all time, second only to the one preceding it, Fort Wayne (which had 816).

120.0
The D2E for Greninja BREAK, the highest of any deck at the event
PokéStats's new D2E (Day 2 Efficiency) metric measures the average CP earned by a deck that has made Day 2 of an event. Greninja won 240 CP on Day 2, split between two players: Michael Long (2nd place) and Jon Eng (14th). This results in a 120.0 D2E, suggesting that Greninja was "the play" for the event since it had the highest average success on Day 2. (Volcanion was a pretty close runner-up, with 110.0).

73.6
Gardevoir-GX's D2E
By contrast, Gardevoir-GX, considered to be the BDIF by most players, put up a fairly lackluster Day 2 performance. 8 Gardevoir decks made Top 32 - twice as much as the next-most-popular decks (Volcanion and Golisopod, 4 placements each) - yet only one of them advanced to Top 8, and only 2 more even made it to Top 16. Considering 60 is the lowest D2E possible at a Regional, this is lower than what one might expect for the best deck in the format.

21.1%
Overall tie rate at Hartford, as reported by Christopher Schemanske
Schemanske tweeted out this number and referred to it as "not normal," adding that the tie rate in Fort Wayne was 17.3%. Schemanske believes "this is a Standard vs Expanded thing" - Expanded is simply a faster format and allows players to complete games in a shorter amount of time. Robin Schulz added that "ties definitely seem less likely in Expanded; this weekend in Bilbao relatively few people were still playing when time got called... me and some friends were frequently done in under 30 minutes, sometimes even finishing 3 games in that."

57℉
Average outdoor temperature across the weekend of the event
This is a very interesting explanation for that high tie rate. Jac Carter noted on Twitter that the tie rate mentioned by Schemanske "could be [because of] a colder climate...slowing down players' hands." I interpreted it as a joke at first, but Carter elaborated: "It's actually something to take into account. A few players, including myself, noted that our pace of play was slower due to cold hands." Schemanske confirmed: "You're not wrong, it was definitely chilly in the hall." As a New England native, I hadn't considered that the weather would be that affecting, but I do remember several Southerner players complaining about the cold on Twitter as they arrived in Connecticut.

4
The amount of major events Sam Chen has consecutively Top 8'd, including Hartford
Count 'em: NAIC, Worlds, Fort Wayne, and Hartford. And that doesn't even tell the whole story. That's the largest tournament of all time, followed by Worlds, followed by the two largest Regionals of all time. This achievement speaks for itself.